Obama's Last Hundred Days

It's always the same with our culture. Some fad or person or cultural artifact becomes disgustingly popular way too fast. He or she or it is on everyone's tongues, their name is repeated relentlessly on television until it's drilled in to our heads. Inevitably, this mass popularity translates into profit and consumerism, either by way of a tell-all book, a made-for-TV movie or of course, the T-shirt.

Just as inevitably as the snowballing rise of popularity of these fads, there comes the backlash. One moment, The Matrix is the biggest, coolest, most must-see movie ever. The next, you have eight year-olds scoring points with their friends by doing Neo or Agent Smith impressions. "What good is a...phone call if you are .... unable ... to speak?" For the media, as well as for our own sick voyeuristic pleasures, nothing's better than the rise of something new than that new thing's tragic fall. See Britney Spears.

In any case, to get to the forever delayed subject of this article, I turn to the number one celebrity in the world, the all-but-crowned Democratic Presidential candidate and junior Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama. Mr. Obama has, through his natural charms, his team of brilliant strategists and his sheer political wits, delayed a backlash against his volcanic rise to international prominence.

A mere seven months prior, Mr. Obama was a long shot for the Iowa primaries. Senator Hillary Clinton of New York (remember her?) had been pencilled in by the elites and the experts as the front-runner for President for years. He was a nobody, a guy who had made one good speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention in Boston amd who had been on Oprah a few times touting his books and who was sort of liked by the few political observers who knew of him.

Jump ahead to last week where this very American politician managed to attract a throng of 200,000 people to a speech...in Germany. Mr. Obama's tour of Europe and the Middle East involved one-on-one meetings with the most powerful men and one woman (Ms. Merkel) in the world. These supposed world leaders, from British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Jordanian Monarch King Abdullah, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, amongst others, all seemed to jump at the chance to shake the hands of 'the One,' as Mr. Obama's opponent, Senator John McCain of Arizona, privately refers to him.

The world tour was the peak of fame for a man who would save America and restore it to its rightful place as former President Reagan's proverbial 'shining city on a hill.' And so, as with all things from Icarus to a frisbee flung by a child, what goes up, must come down.

Over the next three months, Mr. Obama faces his toughest challenge on the path to succeeding George W. Bush. How can he translate his vast media presence and his fevered grip on the imaginations of millions into political victory? It's one thing for doe-eyed reporters and twenty-something college students to love the man and wear t-shirts of his face. It's entirely another to score a victory on Election Day, November 4, 2008.

Chief amongst Mr. Obama's obstacles is to maintain his aura as Great American Hero and delay the backlash against his persona. Already, there has begun a steady patter of arrows being launched towards his direction. Accusations of elitism, of being a weak-kneed Liberal are being spoken by Obama's natural opponents, the Republican Party.

However, we're still in the stage where a lot of the accusations are still far-fetched, or just flat-out wrong. Die-hard Hillary supporters fault him for being a man. Daily followers of he news cycles have begun tagging him with the dreaded 'flip-flopper' pejorative, a term which eventually helped to do in Mr. Obama's predecessor, the Senator from Massachusetts, John Kerry. Cynics chastise him for being too 'perfect', too clean-cut and popular for his own good. Religious fundamentalists think he's really a Muslim (God forbid) in disguise. Closet racists of course, we know why they're not going to cast their ballot for him.

The question becomes, how to dispel all these potential threats when Mr. Obama has less than a hundred days left until the big day?

The answer is multi-faceted. Mr. Obama must, above all else, ensure his priority over the coming weeks is to assure the American housewife. This statement is yes, a little simplistic, but what I mean is that the vast centre of the American political spectrum is comprised of working-class Americans. It is these Americans who spend their time taking care of their families, their savings accounts, paying their bills and working endlessly who always have the last say in Presidental elections. Modern day observers like to ponder how an incompetent dreg like W won two elections for himself and secured the Presidency for eight years, but the answer is really as simple as W managed to appeal to the average American. He made the housewife feel secure. Setting aside his differences with the current Commander-in-Chief, Mr. Obama ought to take some lessons from W and learn how to appear as just a regular guy and not as he still portrayed; an exotic usurper with mysterious intentions and a sometimes off-putting personality cult.

If anything, Americans are not as dumb as we like to make them out to be. Furthermore, they are generally suspicious of anyone who can summon the kinds of hyperbolic praise that Mr. Obama has done. He knows he has the young left, the Democrats and the true believers in his pocket. The real trick for the Senator is going to be how to destroy his 'messianic' media image while still calling upon the very talent and charisma that built this image to attract regular voters.

Can a Harvard-educated Constitutional Law professor come off as a barbeque-eating, beer-drinking average Joe? No. He doesn't have to. What he does have to do is to convince those who do subscribe to this stereotype that he is going to to be President just as much for them than for the marijuana-smoking liberal arts college student.

Secondly, Mr. Obama has to make a mistake. Something as simple as making a public error, and then recovering from it, would go a long way towards convincing people that the man is human. His previous problems with Reverend Wright, Hillary Clinton and Tony Rezko all involved the mistakes of others. Now he himself must learn the brittle art of fucking up on a national scale and then apologizing for it. Nothing reinforces a relationship like a little bit of make-up sex, if I may make use of such a crude metaphor.

Finally, Mr. Obama has to make the case that his opponent is not a feeble, out-of-touch old man with nary a chance of winning. Americans love underdogs and so does the press. If Mr. Obama continues to come across as the Heir Apparent before a single ballot has been cast, Americans will have yet another reason to resent him as being haughty, arrogant and presumptuous. Again, it's a tricky balance of making Mr. McCain (who doesn't have a shot in hell to win by the way) appear as if he could win and that such a possibility would spell disaster for the already beleaguered union, all the while continuing to promote his own strengths.

This election cannot remain simply a question of whether Mr. Obama is worthy of the Oval Office or not. It's got to become what elections were originally supposed to be - a contest between two individuals to decide who will be the better person for the job. If Mr. Obama and his skilled team of strategists can refocus the fickle media's attention on making a comparison between the two men rather than just on him, then there will be no contest.

A hundred days is a long time to predict a final outcome. Anything can happen in that time. On November 4th, we'll know what the next four years for the American people, and by extension, the world, will hold. Until then, go play GTA4.

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Three Links

Three Articles

Hillary's Math Problem -
http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240
(shows you why there's no way in hell she's going to win the nomination)

Party Like It's 1929 -
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/21/opinion/21krugman.html
(Krugman's columns about the economic crisis are all excellent and he knows what's up)

Will Canada Catch What's Ailing U.S. ? -
http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/savingsdebt/johncaspar/article.aspx?cp-documentid=5663227
(Laymen's terms on the crisis from a Canadian perspective)

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Greater of Two Goods

This post might be an anachronism before anybody gets to read it, seeing as how Mr. Obama just won Wisconsin about a couple hours ago. Regardless...

Elections in the U.S. over the past few Presidential cycles have tended to boil down to picking the lesser of two evils. Which one of the old white guys is slightly less evil than the other? Which one is slightly less incompetent, or slightly less likely to be a total dud, or with whom do you disagree with less?

This cycle is different, obviously, and it's one of the reasons why media coverage and popular interest is hitting the sort of intensity that it has been. For the first time since anyone of my age can remember, we have a real choice in this election. And not only that, but we have several candidates who seem to have that magic combination of vision, policy, personality and electability which can bring the most cynical and alienated non-voter out to rallies and keep them glued to CNN for hours watching speeches while getting into arguments about Texan Latinos or superdelegate responsibilities. What follies God likes to play on us. 'Be careful of what you pray for', as the old saying goes: 'it might come true'.

Hillary Clinton has, since her election to the Senate in 2000, been trying to sow the seeds of inevitablitity and entitlement to the crown of President. Her political operation, financed by the DNC establishment, wealthy New York supporters and masterminded by many of the same people who engineered her husband's victories in 1992 and 1996, was mostly successful. A lot of mainstream media sources, political junkies and regular folk were sort of convinced, without really any hard evidence, that she was the right man, er, woman for the job. It was all set up, Clinton in '08. Even though she herself was either in full denial or "won't deny or confirm" mode until her official announcement, somehow, the vast centre-left-wing conspiracy had worked its spell on Americans.

Or at least, it did, until Iowa.

Upstart, inspirational, charismatic, cult-leader, whatever you wish to call him, Barack Obama, the freakin' media magnet of our time came out and clobbered Hillary's dreams and plans like Godzilla stomped Tokyo. The surefire predetermined landslide nomination was anything but and at this moment, we are in the midst of what the old-fashioned pundits like to call "a horse race."

However, it's important to understand that despite what some right-wing diehards and indeed, some MSM reporters like to believe, this is not a war. The Obama-Clinton race is merely that, a race. It doesn't mean that Clinton supporters hate Obama, or vice versa, or that one side would not vote for the other should their candidate lose. Surveys conducted by CNN/Opinion Research last week show that "Seventy-nine percent [of Texan Democrats] say they would be satisfied if Clinton were the nominee; an equal number feel the same way about Obama." Meaning, that, the whole thing doesn't matter and that 8 out of 10 Democrats won't be burning effigies and declaring "Hail to the Thief" if the other person wins the nomination.

This race really is a choice between the greater of two goods. It's a fantastic decision to make. Sort of like "Do I want ice cream or brownies for dessert?" (Ok maybe that's got some racial subtext...) How about "Should I choose the Ferrari or the Lambo? The Benz or the Beamer? The 50 inch Plasma or the 50 inch LCD?" You catch my drift. It's the greater of two goods, and the important thing to note is that either way, America and consequently the world will better off from 2009-2013.

Keep this paradigm in mind while being absorbed into the media maelstrom over the ten months until November 7, 2008. Whether your man (or woman) gets the nod or not, be thankful for the wonder of democracy that Americans have and so many millions don't.. And also for the options we all wanted in '04, 2000, '96...

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Hillary Joke

By Penn Jillette of all people:

Obama is just creaming Hillary. You know, all these primaries, you know. And Hillary says it’s not fair, because they’re being held in February, and February is Black History Month. And unfortunately for Hillary, there’s no White Bitch Month.

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Post Iowa, Pre New Hampshire (pt. 1)

Having predicted Iowa pretty much accurately, I finally feel compelled to let loose about this U.S. Presidential campaign, now that's it's somewhat sane to actually talk about it.

First of all, the amount of coverage and focus over the last 6-12 months has been totally overblown and sort of disconcerting. The fact that there were grown women and men arguing passionately on live TV over an election that was two years away is a testament to the broken media in the States.

In any case, I'll start with the results and follow with brief comments about both the winners.

Iowa Caucus 2008 Results

Democrats:

1,781 of 1,781 districts reporting

Obama 37.58
Edwards 29.75
Clinton 29.47
Richardson 2.11
Biden 0.93
Uncommitted 0.14
Dodd 0.02

Republicans:

1,546 of 1,781 districts reporting

Huckabee 34
Romney 25
Thomspon 13
McCain 13
Paul 10
Giuliani 3

History in the Making

Look, I like Barack Obama. If I were to vote on November 4 for one person, it would be him. His policies are not 100% great (whose are?). His experience is scant. Heck, I'm one of the people who agree that he should have waited another four to eight years. His wife is a big target for GOP hit squads wanting to stir up sideshow controversies and distract from the issues. And he has other little vulnerabilities to media attacks. So why the support?

Because he's a good man.

Not that he looks like one, not that he seems nice. He is good. Mr. Obama doesn't have an ounce of wicked manipulative politician in him and that contrast becomes especially obvious when compared to Ms. Clinton.

If Mr. Obama ever did win the whole thing one day, he would make a fine President for the United States and indeed be able to follow up on his promise to offer real change for not only the Executive Office, but for the overall direction and character of the country.

Now having said that, I have very real doubts about his chances in this primary season, let alone in the general. The United States has, as everyone knows, a long, sordid history with the subject of race and with the majority's treatment of persons of African descent. Blacks in the States, though legally "freed" in 1865 by President Lincoln, have continued to suffer incredible discrimination, persecution and downright contempt for decades.

Travel to any major American city and you too will see the absolute reality of what I call
"covert discrimination." Inexorably, the white population will dominate the suburbs, commuter towns and upper-class neighborhoods with their 5-bedroom and two-car garages. Take a stroll in the inner city and downtown areas and suddenly colour reenters the equation. A subway ride on the 2 Line in New York from the Bronx to Lower Manhattan reveals this phenomenon most glaringly. One could describe it as if traveling to a whole new country.

The point is, racism exists in America, and elsewhere, even if no-one wants to admit to it. There are larger forces at work that seek to shape the election. And that simple, bigoted line; "a black man can never become President," tragically, may be the one thing that stops the DNC and the United States at large from electing Barack Obama.

To put it to a sharper point, consider that the last time someone with that sort of genuine human quality became President was 1960, and J.F.K. And he was a white man.

The Evangelical President

On the flip-side of the democratic divide, we have Governor Mike Huckabee. Though I know too little about him as of yet, a feeling I imagine I share with many Americans, watching some of his interviews, this man shares that same key quality of decency and genuine humanity that Obama has.

Mr. Huckabee brings with him some interesting commonalities with, of all people, Bill Clinton. He's from Hope, Arkansas, Mr. Clinton's hometown, first of all. Secondly, they were both two-term governors of the great state of Arkansas. Thirdly, they both play musical instruments (Clinton with his famous sax, Huckabee a bassist). And finally, the two have also shared friendly relations with political strategist Dick Morris, with whom though Mr. Clinton has since severed ties.

His ace in the hole against his opponents though, aside from his astute, "aw-shucks" public persona, is his career as a Southern Baptist pastor. These irrefutable religious credentials are in marked contrast to the pseudo-evangelism of President Bush, as well as the still thorny issue of Mr. Romney's Mormonism. His years as a pastor also hold much water for grassroots Republican voters, as well as the enormous amount of Evangelical Christians who swept Mr. Bush into power in 2004. Their potential power was displayed back then, and now again in Iowa.

The significance of this common denominator is best understood when juxtaposed with the sort of ruthless, win-at-any-cost establishment campaigns run by Mr. Romney and Ms. Clinton. As I see it, Americans are finished with the Rove/Carville politics of the 90s where elections became battles, personal attacks commonly accepted, and any tactic that produced a surge in the polls celebrated. Furthermore, average American voters, especially in the middle-class, feel more disconnected with their government than at any time since the Nixon era thirty-five years ago. They yearn for a leader in whom they can trust. They demand competence, wisdom and righteousness after eight years of their absence.

Ms. Clinton and Mr. Romney can certainly provide the competence and the leadership, no doubt about it. But can they provide the vessel in to which American voters can pour their hopes, dreams and faith? That is their biggest weakness, and both Obama and Huckabee are smart enough to exploit that. This answer to this question is sure to be illuminated a little more in a few days time with the New Hampshire primary. Until then, I will try to follow up with some more analysis and speculation in a second part.

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Good ol' Pic Post

Haven't done this in a while... here be a smattering of images from across the globe taken over the past week:

Mourners hold vigil at Virginia Tech.

The view from an American outpost in Ramadi, Anbar Province, Iraq.

Congolese militia boy.

Canadian soldiers off duty in Kandahar, Afghanistan enjoy some icecaps and coffee.


An orphaned cougar in Vallejo, California.

Pakistani human rights advocate Asma Jehnagir submits a list of missing persons to a court in Islamabad.

Former Russian President Boris Yeltsin lies in state in Moscow.


Gunmen in Somalia prepare for battle.

Democratic candidates for President debate in South Carolina.

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